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-What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4? Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55. The final forecast for period 16 should be rounded off to the nearest whole number.
-What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.6?
Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55. The final forecast for period 16 should be rounded off to the nearest whole number.
-What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.4 as of week 15? Do not use the squared error for week one in your MSE calculation.
-What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.6 as of week 15? Do not use week one in your calculations.
-What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.4?
-What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.6?
-Assume that the control limits for the tracking signal are ±4. What can be concluded about the quality of the forecasts using α = 0.40 or α = 0.60?
-What is the forecast for period 16 using the three-period moving average? The final forecast for period 16 should be rounded off to the nearest whole number.
Expert Answer
a) For alpha = 0.4, Forecast for week 16 = 64
b) For alpha = 0.6, Forecast = 66
c) MSE for alpha = 0.4 is 935.80/(14-1) = 71.98
d) MSE for alpha = 0.6 is 1045.78/(14-1) = 80.44
