Question & Answer: In this problem, you are to test the validity of your forecasting model. Here are the forecasts for…..

In this problem, you are to test the validity of your forecasting model. Here are the forecasts for a model you have been using and the actual demands that occurred WEEK FORECAST ACTUAL 750 830 930 880 980 1,030 880 880 1,030 980 a. Use the method stated in the text to compute the MAD and tracking signal for each week. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your Tracking Signal to 1 decimal place and all other answers to the nearest whole number.) Absolute Deviation Sum of Absolute Deviation Week Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE 750 2 830 3 930 930 5 980 880 980 1,030 880 880 1,030

In this problem, you are to test the validity of your forecasting model. Here are the forecasts for a model you have been using and the actual demands that occurred: a. Use the method stated in the text to compute the MAD and tracking signal for each week. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your “Tracking Signal” to 1 decimal place and all other answers to the nearest whole number.)

Expert Answer

A.

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Week Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Absolute deviation Sum of absolute deviation MAD TS
1 750 880 -130 -130 130 130 130 -1
2 830 980 -150 -280 150 280 140 -2
3 930 1030 -100 -380 100 380 127 -3
4 930 880 50 -330 50 430 108 -3.1
5 980 880 100 -230 100 530 106 -2.2
6 955 1030 -75 -305 75 605 101 -3.0
Overall MAD = average of the sum of absolute deviation = 605/6 = 101 (approx.)
TS = Sum of errors/ MAD = -305/100.833 = -.3.02 or -.3

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