# Question & Answer: 8.What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4?…..

8.What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4? Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55. The final forecast for period 16 should be rounded off to the nearest whole number.

9.What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.6? Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55. The final forecast for period 16 should be rounded off to the nearest whole number.

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Question & Answer: 8.What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4?…..
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10.What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.4 as of week 15? Do not use the squared error for week one in your MSE calculation.

11.What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.6 as of week 15? Do not use week one in your calculations.

12.What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.4?

13.What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.6?

The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below. Demand Week Demand 63 50 69 52 67 58 70 50 12 57 58 14 1웨 73 15 Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations 0.4?Assume that he forecast or week was 5. The ma forecast or 6 should e rounded IT what is te frecast number. or week 16 using exponential smoothing with α er od the nearest whole

8.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.4 Week Demand Forecast AD 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 3.000 57.000 53.000 4.000 4.000 60.000 54.600 5.400 5.000 58.000 56.760 1.240 6.000 63.000 57.256 5.744 7.000 50.000 59.554 9.554 8.000 50.000 55.732 5.732 9.000 58.000 53.439 4.561 10.000 73.000 55.264 17.736 11.000 69.000 62.358 6.642 12.000 52.000 65.015 13.015 13.000 67.000 59.809 7.191 14.000 58.000 62.685 4.685 15.000 70.000 60.811 9.189 16.000 64 7.121 MAD

64

9.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.6 Week Demand Forecast AD 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 3.000 57.000 52.000 5.000 4.000 60.000 55.000 5.000 5.000 58.000 58.000 0.000 6.000 63.000 58.000 5.000 7.000 50.000 61.000 11.000 8.000 50.000 54.400 4.400 9.000 58.000 51.760 6.240 10.000 73.000 55.504 17.496 11.000 69.000 66.002 2.998 12.000 52.000 67.801 15.801 13.000 67.000 58.320 8.680 14.000 58.000 63.528 5.528 15.000 70.000 60.211 9.789 16.000 66 7.281 MAD

66

10.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.4 Week Demand Forecast AD SE 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 3.000 57.000 53.000 4.000 16.000 4.000 60.000 54.600 5.400 29.160 5.000 58.000 56.760 1.240 1.538 6.000 63.000 57.256 5.744 32.994 7.000 50.000 59.554 9.554 91.271 8.000 50.000 55.732 5.732 32.858 9.000 58.000 53.439 4.561 20.800 10.000 73.000 55.264 17.736 314.581 11.000 69.000 62.358 6.642 44.114 12.000 52.000 65.015 13.015 169.387 13.000 67.000 59.809 7.191 51.711 14.000 58.000 62.685 4.685 21.953 15.000 70.000 60.811 9.189 84.434 16.000 64 7.121 66.843 MAD MSE

11.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.6 Week Demand Forecast AD SE 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 3.000 57.000 52.000 5.000 25.000 4.000 60.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 5.000 58.000 58.000 0.000 0.000 6.000 63.000 58.000 5.000 25.000 7.000 50.000 61.000 11.000 121.000 8.000 50.000 54.400 4.400 19.360 9.000 58.000 51.760 6.240 38.938 10.000 73.000 55.504 17.496 306.110 11.000 69.000 66.002 2.998 8.990 12.000 52.000 67.801 15.801 249.660 13.000 67.000 58.320 8.680 75.338 14.000 58.000 63.528 5.528 30.560 15.000 70.000 60.211 9.789 95.820 16.000 66 7.281 74.698 MAD MSE

12.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.4 TS = RSFE/MAD Week Demand Forecast AD SE E RSFE MAD Tracking signal 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 -5.000 -5.000 5.000 -1.00 3.000 57.000 53.000 4.000 16.000 4.000 -1.000 4.5 -0.22 4.000 60.000 54.600 5.400 29.160 5.400 4.400 4.8 0.92 5.000 58.000 56.760 1.240 1.538 1.240 5.640 3.91 1.44 6.000 63.000 57.256 5.744 32.994 5.744 11.384 4.2768 2.66 7.000 50.000 59.554 9.554 91.271 -9.554 1.830 5.156 0.35 8.000 50.000 55.732 5.732 32.858 -5.732 -3.902 5.239 -0.74 9.000 58.000 53.439 4.561 20.800 4.561 0.659 5.154 0.13 10.000 73.000 55.264 17.736 314.581 17.736 18.395 6.552 2.81 11.000 69.000 62.358 6.642 44.114 6.642 25.037 6.561 3.82 12.000 52.000 65.015 13.015 169.387 -13.015 12.022 7.148 1.68 13.000 67.000 59.809 7.191 51.711 7.191 19.213 7.151 2.69 14.000 58.000 62.685 4.685 21.953 -4.685 14.528 6.962 2.09 15.000 70.000 60.811 9.189 84.434 9.189 23.717 7.121 3.33 16.000 64 Ans 7.121 66.843 MAD MSE

13.

 Blossom Shop a = 0.6 TS = RSFE/MAD Week Demand Forecast AD SE E RSFE MAD Tracking signal 1.000 55.000 55.000 2.000 50.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 -5.000 -5.000 5.000 -1.00 3.000 57.000 52.000 5.000 25.000 5.000 0.000 5 0.00 4.000 60.000 55.000 5.000 25.000 5.000 5.000 5 1.00 5.000 58.000 58.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.000 3.75 1.33 6.000 63.000 58.000 5.000 25.000 5.000 10.000 4 2.50 7.000 50.000 61.000 11.000 121.000 -11.000 -1.000 5.167 -0.19 8.000 50.000 54.400 4.400 19.360 -4.400 -5.400 5.057 -1.07 9.000 58.000 51.760 6.240 38.938 6.240 0.840 5.205 0.16 10.000 73.000 55.504 17.496 306.110 17.496 18.336 6.571 2.79 11.000 69.000 66.002 2.998 8.990 2.998 21.334 6.213 3.43 12.000 52.000 67.801 15.801 249.660 -15.801 5.534 7.085 0.78 13.000 67.000 58.320 8.680 75.338 8.680 14.214 7.218 1.97 14.000 58.000 63.528 5.528 30.560 -5.528 8.685 7.088 1.23 15.000 70.000 60.211 9.789 95.820 9.789 18.474 7.281 2.54 16.000 66 Ans 7.281 74.698 MAD MSE