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Name:Syed Farasat Ali ShahStudent Id:018010990024Subject:Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Civil EngineeringAssignment Title:Disaster Prevention & Mitigation Plan for Peshawar, PakistanDated:8th October, 2018Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityDisaster Prevention & Mitigation Plan for Peshawar, Pakistan1. Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Profile of District PeshawarPeshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, is located at the north-west end of Pakistan. Peshawar has a geo-strategically important location and an enriched history. Peshawar is a disaster prone district and vulnerable to a number of both natural and human induced hazards.
As per the severity index of the National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) 2012-22 it ranks at 26 among the 145 districts of the country with a scoring key of 19 and categorized as at very high Risk. The index highlight that Peshawar is at the highest level of risk for earthquake and floods. However, a critical analysis of the index calculation reveals some flaws especially in case of cyclone; the risk of which has been categorized as low.
This was proved wrong in August 2014 and April 2015 when very strong winds caused a huge amount of destruction in Peshawar. Moreover, it can be safely argued that Peshawar would have fallen in the category of top three vulnerable districts if human induced hazards like refugees & displaced persons influx, terrorism, fires would have been considered while calculating these risk indices for NDMP. The list of hazards thus confronting the district in general and the city in specific is a diverse and alarming one. The hazards prioritized are floods, earthquake, cyclones/ strong winds/ windstorms, urban flooding, epidemics, fires, terrorist attacks.2. Prevailing major hazards in Peshawar2.1. FloodsDistribution of rainfall in District Peshawar generally occurs during two different seasons: winters rainfall continues during December to March while summers rainfall which falls during June to September. Normally monsoon arrives in first or second week of June but major floods occur in late summer i.e. July to September. During recent years, it has been commonly observed that the distribution of rainfall is very disturbed due to climatic changes and the District receives heavy rainfall in the form of erratic and cloud burst normally occurs especially during the monsoon season.NDMP categorize Peshawar as one of the top few cities in terms of flood risk. The PDMA KP has also listed Peshawar as highly vulnerable to floods in the last three consecutive Monsoons Floods Contingency Plans. The flood Plains/zones falls between Kabul River and Budni Nala from Warsak in the Northwest towards Southeast in the upper Northern half of the district.The district was also one of the worst affected district in floods 2010 when river Kabul and Budni Nala devastated most parts of the district affecting 16 UCs, destroying 33,867 houses with 46 dead and 68 injured37. Similarly, in 2012, three precious lives were lost while seven injured and a total of 217 houses were damaged38. In 2014, 13 drowned, 54 injured. The same went on for 2015 when 224 houses were partially damaged, 19 fully collapsed and 7 persons lost their lives due to heavy rains and flash floods39.Urban flooding is a well-known and usual phenomenon, which has intensified since few years in Peshawar. Poor drainage system in urban areas, which the newly established Water and Sanitation system callsalmost completely clogged drainage system is one of the reason for increased urban flooding. Apart from the old city, Warsak road, Gul Bahar, Cantonment area the planned township Hayatabad faces severe urban flooding with around 4 feet of water levels were recorded in 2013, 14 and 15. The District administration however claims that the most important reason of urban flooding is heavily encroached Budni Nala. The reason being that almost all the drainage from Peshawar has its outfall into the same Nala which eventually run into the Kabul River.2.2. EarthquakeMost of Peshawar, as per the building codes of Pakistan, lies in seismic zone 2B except for small area in the north west of district adjoining to Mohmand and Khyber Agency which falls in seismic zone 3. The relative severity of risk index of NDMP by JICA puts Peshawar into the very high category in terms of earthquake risk. Peshawar lies in the zone, which consists of southern part of Eurasian plate and northern part of Indo-Australian plate. Highly Seismic Hindu Kush region is approximately 200 km North West of Peshawar. Most of the earthquakes felt at Peshawar have their origin in the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan or Northern areas of Pakistan41. Experts also feel that with such a record of historical seismicity, possibility of a huge earthquake in Peshawar in the near future cannot be ruled out.Enforcement of building codes is conspicuous by its absence. After 2005 earthquake the Pakistan building codes Seismic provisions of 2007 are being followed by the Government departments for the public buildings and infrastructure. However, for the private buildings no codes enforcement regime in Peshawar is in prospect.2.3. Mini-Cyclones/ TornadoesStrong winds and windstorms is a recurring hazard in Peshawar. The damages due to these winds are increasing due to unsafe urban planning practices such as unsafe and buildings, as well as the use of unstable billboards throughout the city. In 2012 there were 4 deaths and 25 casualties during a wind storm in the city. However, the mini-cyclone that ripped through Peshawar division on 26th April, 2015 was an unusual phenomenon. The Pakistan Meteorological Department stated that this mini-tornado was the third forceful whirlwind in the recorded history of Pakistan and termed it as an unusual and extreme weather event. The mini-tornado was accompanied by strong winds with a speed of 110km per hour and 60mm rainfall. Due to this event at least 31 people were killed more than 203 injured. PMD in its press release issued on the next day accepted their inability to forecast such weather patterns.Other hazards that affected Peshawar in past are fires, terrorism, temporary dislocated persons, refugees and epidemic diseases. Peshawar due to its geographical position was most effected city of Pakistan due to terrorism and refugees. The terrorism has killed thousands of men in recent past and law order situation of the city was very poor. By the efforts of provincial and national government the risk due to manmade hazards is greatly reduced in recent years.3. Disaster Risk Management for Peshawar DistrictThe disaster risk management and mitigation is a continuous process and involves persistent effort from all the stake holders of the community. Generally in Pakistan and specifically in KPK and Peshawar disasterrisk management is not well understood nor adopted in letter and spirit. All the responsibility is often placed on national disaster management authority (NDMA) and provincial disaster management authority (PDMA). It needs to be understood that disaster management is not the sole responsibility of the national and provincial government but local government should needs to work in tandem to reduce disaster risk.First step of next ten years plan is to establish the district disaster management unit and district emergency operations center. And any plan for disaster management in future should be implemented through district departments.3.1. Establishment of District Disaster Management Unit (DDMU)The District Disaster Management Unit shall be established for the planning, coordinating and implementing the activities related to disaster management at district level in accordance with guidelines laid by NDMA and PDMA. Following are the powers and functions of DDMUs: Chalk out disaster management plan with reference to local risk assessment and facilitate in its implementation Develop standards and guidelines on disaster risk reduction for local stakeholders and officials Arrange training workshops and public awareness campaign for local community and stakeholders on disaster risk management Review development plans of government departments and provide insight on mainstreaming disaster risk reduction measures in these plans, Continuously monitor hazards, risks and vulnerable conditions within the district, municipality, and cantonment areas, Encourage involvement of community groups in disaster risk reduction and response by providing them necessary financial and technical assistance for implementing community level initiatives, Examine construction in the area and if hazard safety standards have not been followed, direct the relevant entities to secure compliance of such standards, Invest in specific capabilities according the requirement to manage all types of threats peculiar to local area, Undertake appropriate preparedness measures at district level; e.g. maintain an early warning system, identify buildings to be used as evacuation sites, stockpile relief and rescue materials and identify alternative means for emergency communications, In the event of a disaster, organize emergency response through the District Emergency Operations Centre (DEOC), Maintain linkages with the Provincial Disaster Management Authority and the Relief Department, Perform such other functions as the Provincial Authority may assign to it.3.2. Establishment of District Emergency Operations Centre (DEOC)In case of a disaster, the DEOC shall take the operational lead and perform following functions: Collecting information about the vulnerable and risky areas Monitor emergency operations and developing secondary threats Carrying out assessment of damages and needs in disaster prone areas Control and manage district level emergency operations. Coordination for preparation, mitigation and response with all the district level stakeholders Coordinate resources for Tehsil/Towns/UC and village level emergency functions Receive and process disaster alerts and warnings from nodal agencies and other sources and communicate the same to all designated authorities and stakeholders Ensure that the government and the communities are alert and are kept informed of evolving situation Requisitioning additional resources during the disaster phase policy making and planning Access of information and communication to general public and media4. Road Map for Next Ten Years:With reference to the major hazards of Peshawar following is the plan for next ten years. Drainage system of urban areas should be improved. A technical study for Budani Nullah should be done in the next five year. Micro zonation of Peshawar city should be done to ascertain about the peak ground acceleration value at a particular point. Heavy penalties, license cancelation and imprisonment should be induced on non-compliance. The equipments for weather forecasting should be upgraded. Weather radars should be installed in the district. Strict penalties and punishments should be introduced for non-observance of building codes, improper drainage system, unplanned urbanization, unchecked cabling and wiring. Regulatory mechanisms for the concerned authorities need to be chalked out and effectively implemented particularly to safeguard against chain reaction collapse of infrastructure in narrow streets. Although, some federal level departments/institutions (Army, PMD, SUARCO, GSP etc.) are also working at the local level, however, the focus should be given to identifying disaster specific roles and responsibilities of each district department. Promote risk awareness and knowledge through education of the community. Apart from catering for natural disaster, consistent efforts should be made to improve the overall security situation of the district.*********************
