Answered! The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to Bayside City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional…

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(1 The oceanside Hotel adjacent to Bayside City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the citys professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the ten years since the coliseum opened Year Occupanc Rate 1998 75 1999 2000 2001 77 2002 83 2003 81 2004 86 2005 91 2006 87 2007 (a) Determine an exponential smoothing forecast for 2008 given an initial for forecast 1998 of 72% and a smoothing parameter of 0.2. Also determine the 2-year simple moving average forecast as well as the weighted 3-year weighted average forecast 2008. the weighted average forecast, use weights 0.3 greater weights applied to the most recent years. Using the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) determine which of the above three forecasting methods is best based on the 10-year data. Use Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet to do this exercise. Use the occupancy rates provided as demand lease use the occupancy rates as demand value do not convert to actual demand values. (The instructor will provide you with

The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to Bayside City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the ten years since the coliseum opened: (a) Determine an exponential smoothing forecast for 2008 given an initial forecast for 1998 of 72% and a smoothing parameter of 0.2. Also determine the 2-year simple moving average forecast as well as the weighted 3-year weighted average forecast for 2008. For the weighted average forecast, use weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, with greater weights applied to the most recent years. Using the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) determine which of the above three forecasting methods is best based on the 10-year data. Use Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet to do this exercise. Use the occupancy rates provided as demand – Please use the occupancy rates as demand values — do not convert to actual demand values.

Expert Answer

Answered! The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to Bayside City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional... 1

Answered! The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to Bayside City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional... 2

Data Given		Exponential Forecasting									2Yr SMA						3Yr WA
Year	Occupancy rate (%)(A)	Forecast %	Trend(T)	TAF	S	Error	[Error]	[Error]2	[(Error/Actual) *100]	MAPE	Forecast(F)	Error(A-F)	abs(Error)	[Error]2	[(Error/Actual) *100]	MAPE	Weights	Forecast	Error	abs(Error)	Error2	[(Error/Actual) *100]	MAPE
1998	75			72													0.2
1999	70																0.3
2000	72										72.5	-0.5	0.5	0.25	0.694%		0.5
2001	77										71	6	6	36	7.792%			72	-1	1	1	1.299%
2002	83		0.67	77.67	78.73	5.33	5.33	28.44	6.426%		74.5	8.5	8.5	72.25	10.241%			74.1	0.4	0.4	0.16	0.482%
2003	81		0.88	79.40	79.72	1.60	1.60	2.56	1.975%		80	1	1	1	1.235%			79	1	1	1	1.235%
2004	86		0.94	80.60	81.68	5.40	5.40	29.16	6.279%		82	4	4	16	4.651%			80.8	1.2	1.2	1.44	1.395%
2005	91		1.16	82.62	84.30	8.38	8.38	70.16	9.204%		83.5	7.5	7.5	56.25	8.242%			83.9	-0.4	0.4	0.16	0.440%
2006	87		1.50	85.46	85.77	1.54	1.54	2.37	1.771%		88.5	-1.5	1.5	2.25	1.724%			87.5	1	1	1	1.149%
2007	82		1.56	87.26	86.21	-5.26	5.26	27.69	6.418%		89	-7	7	49	8.537%			88	1	1	1	1.220%
2008			1.35	87.77							84.5							85.3
						16.99	27.51	160.39	32.073%	0.032073072		18	18	324	43.116%	0.043116			3.2	6	5.76	7.219%	0.007219

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